Foxes are better forecasters.
When trying to discover how “experts” can improve the accuracy of their predictions, social scientist Philip Tetlock found that “a dart-throwing chimp would have beaten the vast majority of professionals” who were asked to predict the outcome of various world affairs cataloged in his 2006 volume, Expert Political Judgment.
He came to realize that “foxes” – individuals who knew many “little things, as illustrated in Isaiah Berlin’s thought experiment, The Hedgehog and the Fox – did far better at predicting futures than so-called “hedgehogs.”
These individuals knew one big thing but failed to connect the dots between the various cross-currents – or, the “little things.”
Why does this matter in the context of digital product design and modern product design?
Because a discipline that already pulls in expertise from multiple spheres of expertise – such as digital marketing, UX/UI design, CX (customer experience), web development, dashboard design, data visualization, and even engineering – needs to capture the major markers in a complex landscape where change is the one constant.
Our creative director, George Railean is one such fox. He’s got a strong handle and a deep reach into the future of digital product design trends because he understands how the various threads are converging right now – which, when laid out, knit themselves into a clear, connected path.
As we dive headfirst into the future of digital product design and UI/UX design trends, keep this in mind: none of these modern product design trends are occurring in a silo. The next decade stands squarely on the shoulders of how new technology in product design has been developing all along.